U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 180518 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1218 am CDT Mon Mar 18 2019 

Valid 191200z - 201200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion of the central 
and southern rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening, deep South 
Florida during the day, and the central California coast late 
Tuesday night. 

..central through northern rockies region... 

A northern-stream shortwave trough will advance southeast through 
the northern and Central High plains during the day, promoting the 
southward advance of a cold front that should extend from the upper 
MS valley southwest into northern nm by Tuesday evening. Very cold 
temperatures aloft accompanying the upper trough and diabatic 
heating during the day will contribute to very steep lapse rates and 
weak instability over the high terrain. This environment might 
support a few thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening, 
primarily within the evolving, weak Post-frontal upslope regime from 
southern Colorado into northern nm. 

..South Florida... 

A front will stall near or just south of the Florida Keys Tuesday. A 
low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward, along and north 
of the front contributing to Post-frontal ascent and development of 
widespread rain showers. While equilibrium levels and instability 
will generally remain unfavorable for thunderstorms, low-level 
moisture and instability across deep South Florida in closer proximity to 
the frontal zone might remain sufficient for a few thunderstorms 
within a broader area of showers. 

..central California coast... 

A negative-tilt shortwave trough will move onto the central California 
coastal area later Tuesday night accompanied by cooling mid-level 
temperatures, steepening mid-level lapse rates and weak instability. 
Scattered showers will develop in association with this feature, and 
the thermodynamic environment may become at least marginally 
supportive of a few lightning strikes. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Dial.. 03/18/2019