U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 160719 
Storm Prediction Center ac 160718 

Day 2 convective outlook corr 1 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0118 am CST Wed Jan 16 2019 

Valid 171200z - 181200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

Corrected for graphic 

A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of California into the 
Great Basin on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely. 

A shortwave trough will dig southeastward toward the Great Basin 
with substantial cooling aloft and lift resulting in widespread 
precipitation. Minimal instability will exist across California during the 
day and developing into the Great Basin, due to steepening lapse 
rates aloft. Sporadic lightning strikes will be possible from California 
into Nevada and Utah as a cold front progresses eastward. A few strong 
wind gusts may occur as a result of downward mixing of strong winds 
aloft, but severe weather is unlikely. 

Elsewhere, a fast moving shortwave trough will move east from the 
mid MS valley early in the day to the mid Atlantic coast by late 
evening. Cold air aloft may support minimum elevated instability 
across Kentucky and TN, but the overall thunderstorm threat is quite low. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Jewell.. 01/16/2019