U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 201652 
Storm Prediction Center ac 201651 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1051 am CST Wed Nov 20 2019 

Valid 211200z - 221200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from North Texas 
into southwest Arkansas... 

A few strong storms are possible from North Texas to the arklatex 


Strong short-wave trough off the California coast is forecast to shift into 
the southern rockies late in the day2 period as a 80kt+ 500mb speed 
Max translates into West Texas by 22/12z. Prior to this feature's 
influence on the Southern Plains, surface high should build south 
across the Dakotas/NE which will force a pronounced cold front 
across much of OK into north-central Texas by mid afternoon. Latest 
model guidance does not destabilize the warm sector appreciably, but 
a narrow band of somewhat steeper low-level lapse rates are expected 
just ahead of the boundary, roughly the I-20 corridor of North Texas 
into southwest Arkansas. Convection should develop along/north of the wind 
shift within an environment seemingly favorable for a few robust 
updrafts as deep-layer flow is forecast to increase across this 
region. Even so, latest cams guidance is not too aggressive with 
organized updrafts and the Prospect for more than an isolated wind 
gust or marginally severe hail is not that great. Will maintain 5% 
severe probs for this low-end threat. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: 5% - marginal 
hail: 5% - marginal 

.Darrow.. 11/20/2019