U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 160623 
Storm Prediction Center ac 160622 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1222 am CST Wed Jan 16 2019 

Valid 181200z - 191200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
central and northern Texas and southeast Oklahoma... 

Isolated strong storms are possible Friday evening and overnight 
across parts of Texas. Hail will be the primary threat. 

A shortwave trough will develop southeastward across The Four 
Corners states and into the Southern Plains with 50-65 kt midlevel 
southwesterly winds and cooling aloft overspreading much of Texas. 
At the surface, low pressure will translate southeastward across 
Texas as a cold front surges southward across the High Plains. To 
the east of the cold front, southerly winds will aid in the 
northward transport of low 60s f dewpoints, resulting in 
destabilization and scattered thunderstorms. 

To the west, cold air aloft early in the day may support isolated 
lightning strikes across parts of Arizona and New Mexico, but storm 
activity will not be severe. 

..central/northern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma... 
Moisture advection will occur across the warm sector in Texas 
through the period, with initial rain showers and a few weak 
elevated thunderstorms possibly as early as late afternoon. More 
substantial lift will occur during the evening as warm advection 
increases, and overnight along the cold front. Forecast soundings 
indicate little surface based cape due to a cool boundary layer 
initially, but cool temperatures aloft as well as lengthening 
hodographs will favor hail. The most concentrated area of storms 
producing hail is forecast to be over North Texas and perhaps across 
the Red River into Oklahoma and/or arklatex. While surface based 
instability will increase into Saturday morning, chances of wind 
damage appear low at this time. 

.Jewell.. 01/16/2019