- Day Three
acus03 kwns 160623
Storm Prediction Center ac 160622
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 am CST Wed Jan 16 2019
Valid 181200z - 191200z
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
central and northern Texas and southeast Oklahoma...
Isolated strong storms are possible Friday evening and overnight
across parts of Texas. Hail will be the primary threat.
A shortwave trough will develop southeastward across The Four
Corners states and into the Southern Plains with 50-65 kt midlevel
southwesterly winds and cooling aloft overspreading much of Texas.
At the surface, low pressure will translate southeastward across
Texas as a cold front surges southward across the High Plains. To
the east of the cold front, southerly winds will aid in the
northward transport of low 60s f dewpoints, resulting in
destabilization and scattered thunderstorms.
To the west, cold air aloft early in the day may support isolated
lightning strikes across parts of Arizona and New Mexico, but storm
activity will not be severe.
..central/northern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma...
Moisture advection will occur across the warm sector in Texas
through the period, with initial rain showers and a few weak
elevated thunderstorms possibly as early as late afternoon. More
substantial lift will occur during the evening as warm advection
increases, and overnight along the cold front. Forecast soundings
indicate little surface based cape due to a cool boundary layer
initially, but cool temperatures aloft as well as lengthening
hodographs will favor hail. The most concentrated area of storms
producing hail is forecast to be over North Texas and perhaps across
the Red River into Oklahoma and/or arklatex. While surface based
instability will increase into Saturday morning, chances of wind
damage appear low at this time.